To these campaigns and consultants name ID is often the critical goal as under their assumption voters are likely to make a decision based on a simple “at least I’ve heard of him” criterion. Campaigns and consultants who make this assumption seem to think of voters as mindlessly shuffling into the voting booth and pulling the lever with almost no understanding of whom they are selecting. If the “rational voter” assumption gives voters too much credit, the “ignorant voter” assumption commits the opposite sin. On the occasion that these campaigns succeed, it is only because they were lucky enough that some of the messages they put out did matter and their opponents were equally unsophisticated in their understanding of voter behavior.Ģ) The “ignorant voter” assumption. Campaigns that make this assumption waste time, effort and resources putting out messages that simply don’t matter. Campaigns that make this mistake tend to try to talk about every single possible issue, “win” every single point and use every possible argument for their candidate.
Some campaigns and consultants seem to assume that voters are paying close attention to the campaign and measuring it on every single possible issue. Often campaigns and consultants make one of two mistaken assumptions about the way primary voters make choices and these lead to poor strategy and poor performance:ġ) The “rational voter” assumption. As researchers, these can be some of the most challenging and most interesting races to study because of the variety of ways that voters process information and make decisions among multiple candidates.
Many of the campaigns we are involved in this time of the year are primary races with crowded fields.
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